By NC Securities Research
The law dictates that each presidential candidate must be sponsored by a political party that has passed the 3% threshold in parliamentary election. This requirement means that all current political parties that have representatives in parliament are eligible to have candidates. However, the 2009 presidential election must be based on the result of that year, which can turn out as a surprise and somewhat unexpected, especially for the relatively
small parties. The reason is that, parties such as PKS and PD are now stronger, both financially and organizationally, and this may benefit them in reaping more votes. These additional votes, of course, will be at the other party’s expense. Across the board, PDIP may win back some of its lost votes in 2004, while Golkar seems to be more consolidated, which may result in the return of some supporters.
Having said that, one must realize that Indonesian voters are still inexperienced in electing government officials, in which knowing a candidate is more valuable than superior programs when electing someone. In other words, public figures, including celebrities have more chance of being elected.
Celebrity figures have been indisputable forces, as seen during the 2004 general election. Actors and actresses managed to get themselves elected even though they lack prior political experience and track record. In one example, Marissa Haque, a former movie actress is now challenging old crack politicians in the run for Governor of Banten for 2007. Another example, General (ret.) Wiranto’s choice to run with Gus Dur’s younger brother in the
2005 election. The strategy was obviously to draw significant amount of voters based on Gus Dur’s popularity, although the nationalist-clergy combination did not make sense at all.
However, a presidential election is different. Stronger credentials and qualifications are required, and therefore, a mere actor may not be strong enough to be a candidate for the general voters. Nonetheless, a public figure status is still a necessary condition to get elected. On that note, it seems most of political parties are the personification of public figures. For instance, PKB is a personal projection of Gus Dur, therefore one cannot separate PKB from Gus Dur. In the same manner, PAN is Amien Rais, PDIP is Megawati,
and PD is Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY). However, several other political parties do not fall into this category, especially Golkar, which is more organizationally solid and experienced than its peers.
In all, there are only several public figures that come to mind, namely Gus Dur, Amien Rais, Wiranto, Jusuf Kalla, Aburizal Bakrie, Prabowo, Yusril Mahendra, Agung Laksono, SBY, Akbar Tanjung, and Megawati. Megawati, Amien Rais, Gus Dur, and SBY should have no problem entering the presidential race, except if the General Election Committee decides not to accept Gus Dur for health reasons. Other prominent figures however, are mostly affiliated with Golkar such as, Wiranto, Jusuf Kalla, Aburizal Bakrie, Agung Laksono, Prabowo, and Akbar Tanjung.
Under Golkar’s rule, before becoming a presidential candidate, one must win its general convention first. So, what are the chances of each Golkar candidate? Wiranto may have a difficult time should he decide to take part in the convention. Firstly, he needs to have enough financial backing to win more than 30 Golkar regional delegates. We believe he has already exhausted his funds during the 2004 election and will fall short of recuperating financially
before 2008 and 2009. Secondly, his candidacy will be challenged by Prabowo.
Agung Laksono may have a chance provided he can keep in close contact with all regional representatives from now to 2009. However, we believe some of these regional representatives are still under Akbar Tanjung’s control. With this situation, each Golkar presidential candidate must accommodate some of Akbar Tanjung’s interests. Therefore, the “Akbar Tanjung factor” will be an extremely important force to swing votes. Finally, the two remaining candidates, Aburizal Bakrie and Jusuf Kalla. Aburizal Bakrie, in our view, has
more of a chance than Jusuf Kalla. Bakrie undoubtedly is on top when it comes to funding, except if the Lapindo-mud disaster dries him off. He also has an extensive list of friends throughout the business community, which will definitely draw support in connection with his contribution to help the business community to have more say on government regulations. On the other hand, Jusuf Kalla may find himself in an awkward position at the time of his
candidacy announcement, unless he steps down as Vice President before hand. The chance of this is extremely thin, in our view.
In all, we believe the best presidential election scenario is the running of only five prominent public figures, namely Megawati, Amien Rais, Gus Dur, SBY, and Aburizal Bakrie. However, should the parliament amend current laws to allow independents (those with no party backing) to run, the scenario would totally change. In fact, why is it interesting to discuss 2009 presidential candidates this early? With so many possible candidates, the real war may get off to an early start in January 2007 because for the first time, provincial and city governments will be elected directly that year, such as the governor of the Jakarta and Banten Province. At the same time, some of the regional regent elections also begin in 2007. In theory, both governors and regents will play important roles in the next parliamentary election.
Taking this into account, each potential presidential candidate must now choose which candidates, governors and regents, will get their blessing. They may also need to personally work alongside these governor and regent candidates by campaigning in the open, with the exception of Jusuf Kalla and SBY who still retain executive positions. Others hopefuls, such as Aburizal, Amien Rais, Megawati, and Gus Dur have the advantage as they are not restricted by protocol.
Parliamentary members also must start early to gather votes and money. In this case, we expect the honorary members of Parliament to be very busy in 2007, not in their legislation jobs, but in defending their political livelihood. In all, as political activity will heighten in 2007, the country will have to make good in leaving the economy on autopilot.
